In 2007, when we faced the US property bubble burst, all the Canadian property market participants started to inquire: “What is going to be the expected progress on Toronto RE market?”
The worries were based on two crucial arguments. First, Canadian property market, as our complete economy, has close connections to the situation in the USA. Second, Canadian housing market progression in the years 2006 and above all 2007 showed the likelihood of a analogical bubble here. How does the situation look like nearly one year later?
The way how matters were developing between 2008 and 2009 didn’t really appear too good, which only reinforced all the pessimistic prophecies and only a few people still managed to keep their light-hearted approach. Monthly year to year sales statistics demonstrated a clear decrease, peaking at January’s -47% (compared to January 2008). Now we can declare that Canada has been affected by the “depression panic” from autumn 2008. The real estate market almost froze, regarding that most people were anxious about making any radical financial decisions. Looking at these facts, no wonder that some “experts” foretold that Canada would end up in the same collapse as the USA. Nevertheless, the truth seems to be quite far from these predictions. Let’s look at the 2009 figures.
Number of sales and year-to-year change
The most representative and closely observed numbers. We can clearly watch how the market froze in during the winter. Nonetheless, June sales scored more than four times higher than December ones. In the first half of 2009, the first month when we could notice the sales volume growing was May, in comparison to May 2008. And in June, with its +27%, we could state that the Toronto property market has fully recovered.
Days on market
Whereas the previous numbers draw the bulk of the market, another crucial factor illustrates its speed and freshness. This number is important because from the whole market volume statistics we cannot tell how long it would take for your property to get sold - it just gives us another viewpoint of the same issue. Even in the most difficult period in January, the average “days on market” figure was only some 14 days higher. Confronted with South Florida or Detroit, where days on market value reached 120-150 days, our slowdown was ridiculous.
Active listings flow change
We can estimate the mood of the real estate market when looking at this number. It is based on observing the number of new listings on the market. If the home owners are afraid that their property value would decrease and they want to save their investment, the inflow is naturally increasing, while the opposite situation is generally considered as a favourable time to purchase property. It can foretell the future of other indicators - we saw positive change in listings flow after January as a market turn sign.
Average price
This is the number that my real estate clients usually consider as the most important. Your dwelling is the biggest part of your overall property and every move up or down means you lose or gain thousands of dollars. The price decrease of autumn 2008 was already overcome in April.
What is the explanation for such good outcomes?! Even now, pessimistic news about the state of our economy are coming out almost daily. So how can we explain the fact that the real estate market has recovered so soon? We can name two most important factors:
1. Failed expectations
A lot of Canadian inhabitants supposed their housing market would collapse, as they witnessed the situation in the USA. However, what is crucial to emphasize here is the fact that the problems in the USA arose from the subprime sector. Few defaults at the beginning provoked a chain reaction. It started with a price fall, and as a result foreclosures and short sales were not covering all the toxic loans, so the banks were forced to put even more foreclosured homes on the marked, which decreased the prices even more. The subprime sector in Canada is quite limited with a minimum of foreclosures. If we add it up with a healthy (and we can spell it out and say exceptionally healthy) financial system, we get the result that our housing market has been secured by this. As soon as property owners became aware of this, they calmed down.
2. Stabilized economy and buying opportunities
Now we will shortly analyze the figures about inflation, unemployment, GDP predictions and interest rates. These are very important for real estate (look at real estate prices background). Despite the fact that these figures concerning employment or economic growth could look even much more optimistic, we can be quite calm: our economy is far from a collapse, it is only slowed down, in a stagnation period. All these arguments also helped to stop the winter real estate fuss.
Conclusion and the future
Toronto housing market has first very well sustained the pessimistic mood during the winter months, and then it has pulled together very quickly. Now it is getting better again and condo resale market can be even evaluated as hot in the present. Especially people shopping for their first house have now terrific chances, looking at the low interest rates and good prices after a year break. It’s also exciting time for investors to pick some cherries, which prices haven’t recovered till now. Due to the market speed, most houses are now sold during the first month on the market and the selling price is usually quite decent. So the vendors can feel calm too. But we have to bear in mind that there is still some uncertainty pertaining and that the labor market is not quite up to its previous speed. If we take all this into consideration, we can conclude that in the next few years, a bubble is unlikely to appear and that prices will probably grow only moderately. As the market grew especially fast in June (+27%), it is clearly getting to catch up for the previous weak months and soon it will probably be steady again. Toronto real estate market forms a compact foundation of stability for Ontario’s economy in wild times.
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